3.7% yield at a $910k 4-bed entry with 44% of stock rented — a deep, proven tenant pool — plus the station and Morayfield Rd retail spine holding demand.
The worst leading indicator in the corridor: rent flat at $650/wk since early 2026 while rental listings climb — rental supply is outrunning tenants. Underwrite today's rent with zero growth, at LRBA rates.
Waraba's rental pipeline lands here too, and flood is street-real: Feb-2022 flash flooding, and our own 13 Oasis Ct deep-dive carries a flood overlay. Flood premiums are a direct, rising draw on fund liquidity.
Fine on paper, weakening in motion — flat rents plus incoming supply argue the cash-flow story erodes from here. Only compelling at a discount, on dry ground, with newer stock. 21 favourites to filter hard.
| Dimension | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Capital growth | ✓ Good | 16.7% compound over 5 yrs, 19.2% last 12m. Past growth is already in the price — sustaining it depends on the supply picture below. trend data (this DB) |
| Rental yield | ◐ Mixed | 3.7% gross — expect contribution top-ups at LRBA rates; losses stay trapped in the fund at 15%. PropTrack via suburb page |
| Flood risk | ◐ Mixed | Flash-flooded Feb 2022 (Caboolture River south arm); our own 13 Oasis Ct deep-dive found a flood overlay — street-dependent. Feb-2022 event; property.com.au overlays |
| Crime | ◐ Mixed | Violent crime ~9% above QLD average but break-ins 22% below — mid-pack for the corridor, clearly better than Caboolture. QPS via RedSuburbs |
| Infrastructure | ✓ Good | Morayfield Rd retail spine, station, Caboolture River Rd duplication construction from 2026. City of Moreton Bay |
| Owner-occupier appeal | ◐ Mixed | 55% owned / 44% rented, 75% family households — balanced: resale depth plus a proven tenant pool. ABS via suburb page |
| New supply risk | ✗ Bad | Borders the Waraba PDA and still releasing its own greenfield estates. Qld State Development |
| Distance to rail | ✓ Good | Morayfield station on the Caboolture line. Translink network |
| Housing stock & upkeep | ◐ Mixed | 1990s brick plus newer estates — moderate upkeep profile. editorial — stock-age judgment |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $425,000 | 563 |
| 2021-08-31 | $435,000 | 597 |
| 2021-09-30 | $441,125 | 606 |
| 2021-10-31 | $450,000 | 626 |
| 2021-11-30 | $465,000 | 640 |
| 2021-12-31 | $472,250 | 640 |
| 2022-01-31 | $485,000 | 634 |
| 2022-02-28 | $500,000 | 655 |
| 2022-03-31 | $520,000 | 639 |
| 2022-04-30 | $540,000 | 643 |
| 2022-05-31 | $553,000 | 647 |
| 2022-06-30 | $565,000 | 627 |
| 2022-07-31 | $575,000 | 609 |
| 2022-08-31 | $585,000 | 596 |
| 2022-09-30 | $593,000 | 583 |
| 2022-10-31 | $596,000 | 553 |
| 2022-11-30 | $600,000 | 537 |
| 2022-12-31 | $601,000 | 523 |
| 2023-01-31 | $604,750 | 518 |
| 2023-02-28 | $605,000 | 511 |
| 2023-03-31 | $605,000 | 495 |
| 2023-04-30 | $600,000 | 467 |
| 2023-05-31 | $605,000 | 463 |
| 2023-06-30 | $607,500 | 461 |
| 2023-07-31 | $605,500 | 472 |
| 2023-08-31 | $610,000 | 465 |
| 2023-09-30 | $620,000 | 473 |
| 2023-10-31 | $630,000 | 489 |
| 2023-11-30 | $630,000 | 482 |
| 2023-12-31 | $632,000 | 481 |
| 2024-01-31 | $636,500 | 486 |
| 2024-02-29 | $649,990 | 482 |
| 2024-03-31 | $652,500 | 505 |
| 2024-04-30 | $665,000 | 533 |
| 2024-05-31 | $675,000 | 533 |
| 2024-06-30 | $680,000 | 543 |
| 2024-07-31 | $688,700 | 548 |
| 2024-08-31 | $691,250 | 548 |
| 2024-09-30 | $699,900 | 551 |
| 2024-10-31 | $709,225 | 552 |
| 2024-11-30 | $715,000 | 554 |
| 2024-12-31 | $720,000 | 558 |
| 2025-01-31 | $720,000 | 560 |
| 2025-02-28 | $730,000 | 568 |
| 2025-03-31 | $740,000 | 555 |
| 2025-04-30 | $750,000 | 551 |
| 2025-05-31 | $755,000 | 557 |
| 2025-06-30 | $763,500 | 552 |
| 2025-07-31 | $775,000 | 561 |
| 2025-08-31 | $785,000 | 542 |
| 2025-09-30 | $795,500 | 548 |
| 2025-10-31 | $810,000 | 545 |
| 2025-11-30 | $825,900 | 555 |
| 2025-12-31 | $840,000 | 572 |
| 2026-01-31 | $850,000 | 574 |
| 2026-02-28 | $869,000 | 558 |
| 2026-03-31 | $880,031 | 561 |
| 2026-04-30 | $899,900 | 549 |
| 2026-05-31 | $900,500 | 518 |
| 2026-06-30 | $910,000 | 487 |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $385/wk | 380 |
| 2021-08-31 | $390/wk | 375 |
| 2021-09-30 | $390/wk | 367 |
| 2021-10-31 | $395/wk | 360 |
| 2021-11-30 | $400/wk | 356 |
| 2021-12-31 | $400/wk | 355 |
| 2022-01-31 | $400/wk | 359 |
| 2022-02-28 | $413/wk | 362 |
| 2022-03-31 | $420/wk | 370 |
| 2022-04-30 | $430/wk | 373 |
| 2022-05-31 | $440/wk | 367 |
| 2022-06-30 | $450/wk | 365 |
| 2022-07-31 | $450/wk | 370 |
| 2022-08-31 | $450/wk | 382 |
| 2022-09-30 | $460/wk | 385 |
| 2022-10-31 | $480/wk | 396 |
| 2022-11-30 | $480/wk | 399 |
| 2022-12-31 | $490/wk | 412 |
| 2023-01-31 | $500/wk | 424 |
| 2023-02-28 | $500/wk | 435 |
| 2023-03-31 | $500/wk | 428 |
| 2023-04-30 | $505/wk | 432 |
| 2023-05-31 | $520/wk | 448 |
| 2023-06-30 | $520/wk | 461 |
| 2023-07-31 | $525/wk | 483 |
| 2023-08-31 | $530/wk | 496 |
| 2023-09-30 | $530/wk | 492 |
| 2023-10-31 | $540/wk | 512 |
| 2023-11-30 | $550/wk | 527 |
| 2023-12-31 | $550/wk | 564 |
| 2024-01-31 | $550/wk | 574 |
| 2024-02-29 | $550/wk | 579 |
| 2024-03-31 | $558/wk | 584 |
| 2024-04-30 | $560/wk | 603 |
| 2024-05-31 | $570/wk | 638 |
| 2024-06-30 | $580/wk | 663 |
| 2024-07-31 | $580/wk | 682 |
| 2024-08-31 | $590/wk | 702 |
| 2024-09-30 | $590/wk | 710 |
| 2024-10-31 | $595/wk | 709 |
| 2024-11-30 | $600/wk | 707 |
| 2024-12-31 | $600/wk | 693 |
| 2025-01-31 | $600/wk | 694 |
| 2025-02-28 | $600/wk | 690 |
| 2025-03-31 | $610/wk | 713 |
| 2025-04-30 | $615/wk | 749 |
| 2025-05-31 | $620/wk | 741 |
| 2025-06-30 | $620/wk | 744 |
| 2025-07-31 | $625/wk | 751 |
| 2025-08-31 | $630/wk | 764 |
| 2025-09-30 | $630/wk | 781 |
| 2025-10-31 | $630/wk | 795 |
| 2025-11-30 | $640/wk | 808 |
| 2025-12-31 | $640/wk | 821 |
| 2026-01-31 | $643/wk | 812 |
| 2026-02-28 | $650/wk | 823 |
| 2026-03-31 | $650/wk | 843 |
| 2026-04-30 | $650/wk | 838 |
| 2026-05-31 | $650/wk | 833 |
| 2026-06-30 | $650/wk | 848 |
| 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed | 5+ bed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price | $1.10m | $847k | $910k | $1.22m |
| Median rent | $450/wk | $600/wk | $660/wk | $900/wk |
| Implied yield | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| School | Level | Grades | Sector | Students |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morayfield East State School | Primary | Prep-6 | Government | 972 |
| Minimbah State School | Primary | Prep-6 | Government | 728 |
| Carmichael College | Primary | Prep-10 | Independent | 700 |
| Morayfield State School | Primary | Prep-6 | Government | 432 |
| Morayfield State High School | Secondary | 7-12 | Government | 1,687 |
| Carmichael College | Secondary | Prep-10 | Independent | 700 |
| Childcare centre | Rating | Reviews | Day rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edge Early Learning Morayfield East | Meeting NQS | 4.7 ★ (62) | POA |
| Goodstart Early Learning Morayfield | Exceeding NQS | 4.6 ★ (10) | $132 |
| Leading Edge Childcare - Morayfield | Meeting NQS | 4 ★ (20) | $180 |
| Sesame Lane Child Care Centre - Morayfield | Exceeding NQS | 5 ★ (1) | $108 |
| The Kidz Cubby Educational Centre | Exceeding NQS | 4.1 ★ (17) | $92 |
| Address | Sold price |
|---|---|
| 144-150 Hauton Road, Morayfield | $4,800,000 |
| 144 Williamson Road, Morayfield | $1,800,000 |
| 79 Nairn Road, Morayfield | $1,730,000 |
| 50-56 Conifer Road, Morayfield | $1,700,000 |
| 43 Cabernet Court, Morayfield | $1,655,000 |
| 99-101 Sauvignon Drive, Morayfield | $1,610,000 |
| 11-13 Muscat Circuit, Morayfield | $1,510,000 |
| 11-13 Martini Court, Morayfield | $1,500,000 |
| 46 Michael Avenue, Morayfield | $1,300,000 |
| 7 Allure Street, Morayfield | $1,300,000 |
| 3 Meadowview Drive, Morayfield | $985,000 |
| 10 Treedale Street, Morayfield | $940,000 |
| Address | B/B/C | Land | Price | vs Bed Med. | Suburb yield | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Macaranga Street | 4/2/2 | 619 m² | $899k | 99% | 3.8% | clear |
| 13 Oasis Court | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | $899k | 99% | 3.8% | ⚠ Flood⚠ Fire |
| 14 Liberty Court | 4/2/6 | 676 m² | — | — | — | ⚠ Fire |
| 15 Cotswold Street | 6/2/2 | 1548 m² | $995k | 82% | 4.7% | clear |
| 18 Oasis Court | 4/2/2 | 811 m² | $900k | 99% | 3.8% | ⚠ Flood |
| 19 Lunar Court | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | $850k | 93% | 4.0% | ⚠ Flood |
| 19 Macaranga Street | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | $895k | 98% | 3.8% | clear |
| 2 Grigg Drive | 5/2/3 | 772 m² | $950k | 78% | 4.9% | ⚠ Fire |
| 20 Beech Drive | 4/2/2 | 640 m² | $949k | 104% | 3.6% | ⚠ Flood |
| 20 Parkview Street | 4/2/2 | 628 m² | $899k | 99% | 3.8% | clear |
| 21 Coach Road W | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | $870k | 96% | 3.9% | ⚠ Fire |
| 21 Maurice Avenue | 5/2/2 | 646 m² | — | — | — | ⚠ Flood⚠ Fire |
| 24 Telopea Place | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | — | — | — | clear |
| 26 Abraham Close | 4/2/2 | 601 m² | $869k | 96% | 4.0% | clear |
| 36 Carmela Cres | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | $960k | 106% | 3.6% | clear |
| 4 Lorebury Drive | 5/3/2 | 738 m² | $950k | 78% | 4.9% | ⚠ Flood |
| 40 Redcedar Place | 4/2/2 | 606 m² | $900k | 99% | 3.8% | clear |
| 5 Buntine Avenue | 4/2/2 | 825 m² | $920k | 101% | 3.7% | ⚠ Flood |
| 5 Sharon Court | 4/2/2 | 846 m² | $999k | 110% | 3.4% | clear |
| 55 Michael Avenue | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | $950k | 104% | 3.6% | ⚠ Flood |
| 8 Mia Court | 4/2/2 | 640 m² | $899k | 99% | 3.8% | clear |