Best-in-pack affordability and yield: an $860k median (2-bed $760k, 3-bed $830k), 3.7% yield, and the strongest income trajectory in my corridor — rent +8.2% over 12 months, 12.3%/yr over five. A deep, proven tenant pool (39% rented, 3:1 room demand, 422 rental listings churned) plus Redcliffe Hospital-catchment employment underpin the cash flow, and the suburb is built-out and infill-only, so established-house scarcity is real.
Violent crime sits ~24% above the QLD average and break-ins and vehicle theft are trending UP — that means tougher tenant screening, higher turnover and rising landlord insurance, all direct fund-liquidity costs. No rail (10-15 min drive to Rothwell/Kippa-Ring) and a mixed-era stock profile where older and canal-front houses drain fund cash the LRBA cannot fund.
The flood. Saltwater Creek inundated homes in Feb 2022 (and 2015), the suburb is a documented storm-tide and overland-flow risk, and there is a Queensland Reconstruction Authority Voluntary Home Buy-Back case here. Flood insurance is an uncontrollable, rising draw on fund liquidity, and the wrong low or canal street erases the thesis.
An income play, not a growth play — the cheap entry, best yield and rent momentum are genuine, but only on a dry, elevated street with post-2000 stock, well clear of Saltwater Creek and the canal frontage. Suits a cash-flow-focused SMSF that can carry higher insurance and tolerate the crime profile; everyone else should pass. An address-level council Flood Check is mandatory before any offer.
| Dimension | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Capital growth | ◐ Mixed | 15.4% compound over 5 yrs, 14.7% last 12m. Past growth is already in the price — sustaining it depends on the supply picture below. trend data (this DB) |
| Rental yield | ◐ Mixed | 3.7% gross (stated) — expect contribution top-ups at LRBA rates; losses stay trapped in the fund at 15%. PropTrack via suburb page |
| Flood risk | ✗ Bad | Saltwater Creek inundated homes in Feb 2022 (also 2015); documented storm-tide + overland-flow risk with a QRA Voluntary Home Buy-Back case in-suburb — low-lying and canal streets worst. MBRC/BOM flood mapping; QRA case study; Feb-2022 event |
| Crime | ✗ Bad | Violent crime 4,234/100k, ~24% above the QLD average (84th pct); break-ins and vehicle theft both trending UP (+18% since 2020-22). OpenStats 2022-24 (QPS/ABS) |
| Infrastructure | ◐ Mixed | Redcliffe Hospital catchment and Westfield North Lakes a short drive away, 665/687 bus feeders, but no rail and only local retail in-suburb. Metro North Health; Translink |
| Owner-occupier appeal | ◐ Mixed | 59% owned / 39% rented, 70% family households — balanced: resale depth plus a proven tenant pool. ABS via suburb page |
| New supply risk | ✓ Good | Established and infill-only; the sole adjacent pipeline is Stockland's ~190-lot Rothwell site fronting the bay — negligible against the built-out base. Stockland; City of Moreton Bay |
| Distance to rail | ✗ Bad | No station; nearest is Rothwell or Kippa-Ring ~10-15 min drive, bus feeders only. Translink network |
| Housing stock & upkeep | ◐ Mixed | Mixed-era stock (1970s-2000s plus newer estates); older and canal-front houses carry upkeep an LRBA can't fund. editorial — stock-age judgment |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $425,000 | 379 |
| 2021-08-31 | $430,000 | 393 |
| 2021-09-30 | $450,000 | 403 |
| 2021-10-31 | $460,000 | 397 |
| 2021-11-30 | $480,000 | 409 |
| 2021-12-31 | $495,000 | 426 |
| 2022-01-31 | $500,800 | 436 |
| 2022-02-28 | $515,000 | 427 |
| 2022-03-31 | $535,000 | 415 |
| 2022-04-30 | $550,000 | 430 |
| 2022-05-31 | $560,000 | 421 |
| 2022-06-30 | $565,000 | 414 |
| 2022-07-31 | $575,000 | 401 |
| 2022-08-31 | $585,000 | 395 |
| 2022-09-30 | $594,000 | 382 |
| 2022-10-31 | $598,500 | 376 |
| 2022-11-30 | $600,000 | 364 |
| 2022-12-31 | $600,000 | 355 |
| 2023-01-31 | $600,000 | 352 |
| 2023-02-28 | $600,000 | 334 |
| 2023-03-31 | $590,000 | 337 |
| 2023-04-30 | $587,000 | 330 |
| 2023-05-31 | $587,000 | 338 |
| 2023-06-30 | $580,000 | 343 |
| 2023-07-31 | $580,000 | 351 |
| 2023-08-31 | $580,000 | 346 |
| 2023-09-30 | $580,250 | 350 |
| 2023-10-31 | $592,000 | 363 |
| 2023-11-30 | $600,000 | 359 |
| 2023-12-31 | $610,000 | 355 |
| 2024-01-31 | $611,591 | 355 |
| 2024-02-29 | $615,000 | 372 |
| 2024-03-31 | $625,000 | 372 |
| 2024-04-30 | $630,000 | 376 |
| 2024-05-31 | $640,000 | 381 |
| 2024-06-30 | $650,000 | 373 |
| 2024-07-31 | $663,000 | 383 |
| 2024-08-31 | $675,000 | 385 |
| 2024-09-30 | $689,000 | 385 |
| 2024-10-31 | $695,000 | 367 |
| 2024-11-30 | $700,000 | 373 |
| 2024-12-31 | $701,500 | 365 |
| 2025-01-31 | $710,000 | 355 |
| 2025-02-28 | $713,750 | 350 |
| 2025-03-31 | $730,000 | 338 |
| 2025-04-30 | $738,750 | 324 |
| 2025-05-31 | $747,500 | 318 |
| 2025-06-30 | $750,000 | 315 |
| 2025-07-31 | $750,000 | 315 |
| 2025-08-31 | $760,000 | 312 |
| 2025-09-30 | $765,000 | 317 |
| 2025-10-31 | $780,000 | 332 |
| 2025-11-30 | $795,000 | 319 |
| 2025-12-31 | $805,000 | 324 |
| 2026-01-31 | $813,500 | 328 |
| 2026-02-28 | $825,000 | 319 |
| 2026-03-31 | $840,000 | 322 |
| 2026-04-30 | $850,000 | 326 |
| 2026-05-31 | $855,000 | 307 |
| 2026-06-30 | $860,000 | 295 |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $350/wk | 315 |
| 2021-08-31 | $360/wk | 305 |
| 2021-09-30 | $360/wk | 299 |
| 2021-10-31 | $370/wk | 282 |
| 2021-11-30 | $370/wk | 275 |
| 2021-12-31 | $380/wk | 286 |
| 2022-01-31 | $390/wk | 290 |
| 2022-02-28 | $390/wk | 301 |
| 2022-03-31 | $400/wk | 310 |
| 2022-04-30 | $400/wk | 324 |
| 2022-05-31 | $415/wk | 325 |
| 2022-06-30 | $420/wk | 331 |
| 2022-07-31 | $420/wk | 339 |
| 2022-08-31 | $425/wk | 342 |
| 2022-09-30 | $430/wk | 335 |
| 2022-10-31 | $430/wk | 337 |
| 2022-11-30 | $440/wk | 352 |
| 2022-12-31 | $450/wk | 341 |
| 2023-01-31 | $450/wk | 346 |
| 2023-02-28 | $450/wk | 344 |
| 2023-03-31 | $460/wk | 342 |
| 2023-04-30 | $470/wk | 349 |
| 2023-05-31 | $470/wk | 362 |
| 2023-06-30 | $475/wk | 364 |
| 2023-07-31 | $475/wk | 364 |
| 2023-08-31 | $480/wk | 379 |
| 2023-09-30 | $480/wk | 381 |
| 2023-10-31 | $490/wk | 391 |
| 2023-11-30 | $495/wk | 402 |
| 2023-12-31 | $500/wk | 401 |
| 2024-01-31 | $500/wk | 410 |
| 2024-02-29 | $500/wk | 407 |
| 2024-03-31 | $500/wk | 398 |
| 2024-04-30 | $510/wk | 411 |
| 2024-05-31 | $515/wk | 409 |
| 2024-06-30 | $520/wk | 408 |
| 2024-07-31 | $530/wk | 413 |
| 2024-08-31 | $530/wk | 413 |
| 2024-09-30 | $540/wk | 407 |
| 2024-10-31 | $540/wk | 401 |
| 2024-11-30 | $540/wk | 396 |
| 2024-12-31 | $550/wk | 400 |
| 2025-01-31 | $550/wk | 417 |
| 2025-02-28 | $550/wk | 417 |
| 2025-03-31 | $550/wk | 421 |
| 2025-04-30 | $550/wk | 416 |
| 2025-05-31 | $560/wk | 417 |
| 2025-06-30 | $573/wk | 412 |
| 2025-07-31 | $580/wk | 406 |
| 2025-08-31 | $590/wk | 413 |
| 2025-09-30 | $590/wk | 433 |
| 2025-10-31 | $590/wk | 435 |
| 2025-11-30 | $600/wk | 435 |
| 2025-12-31 | $600/wk | 430 |
| 2026-01-31 | $600/wk | 429 |
| 2026-02-28 | $600/wk | 433 |
| 2026-03-31 | $600/wk | 426 |
| 2026-04-30 | $600/wk | 432 |
| 2026-05-31 | $610/wk | 419 |
| 2026-06-30 | $620/wk | 422 |
| 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed | 5+ bed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price | $760k | $830k | $900k | $1.21m |
| Median rent | $520/wk | $580/wk | $700/wk | $875/wk |
| Implied yield | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| School | Level | Grades | Sector | Students |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreton Downs State School | Primary | Prep-6 | Government | 626 |
| Deception Bay North State School | Primary | Prep-6 | Government | 354 |
| Christ the King Catholic Primary School | Primary | Prep-6 | Catholic | 339 |
| Deception Bay State School | Primary | Prep-6 | Government | 242 |
| - | Primary | — | Catholic | — |
| Deception Bay State High School | Secondary | 7-12 | Government | 1,361 |
| Arethusa College | Secondary | 7-12 | Independent | 1,220 |
| Deception Bay Flexible Learning Centre | Secondary | 7-12 | Catholic | 124 |
| Kairos Community College | Secondary | 10-12 | Independent | 122 |
| - | Secondary | — | Catholic | — |
| Childcare centre | Rating | Reviews | Day rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayview Kindergarten and Pre-School | Exceeding NQS | 5 ★ (14) | POA |
| Gardenia Early Learning Deception Bay | Meeting NQS | 4.7 ★ (53) | $145 |
| Goodstart Early Learning Moreton Downs | Exceeding NQS | 4.9 ★ (20) | $134 |
| Moreton Downs Early Education Centre | Meeting NQS | 4.6 ★ (9) | $114 |
| Address | Sold price |
|---|---|
| 68 Shayne Avenue, Deception Bay | $1,210,000 |
| 43 Mariner Boulevard, Deception Bay | $1,200,000 |
| 70 Shayne Avenue, Deception Bay | $1,000,000 |
| 32 Admiral Drive, Deception Bay | $965,000 |
| 3 Orchid Drive, Deception Bay | $930,000 |
| 4 Alkina Court, Deception Bay | $930,000 |
| 7 Katina Court, Deception Bay | $920,000 |
| 18 Central Avenue, Deception Bay | $900,000 |
| 49/6 George Street, Deception Bay | $825,000 |
| 6 George Street, Deception Bay | $800,000 |
| 29/90 Webster Road, Deception Bay | $750,000 |
| 52/17 Cunningham Street, Deception Bay | $728,000 |
| LGA | Subregion | Suburb | Address | Fit ▼ | Sub. Score | B/B/C | Land | Land $/m² | vs Sub. land | Land Idx | Price | Estimate | vs Est. | vs Bed Med. | Est. Yield | Suburb Yield | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 68 Bayview Terrace | 8.5 | 6.7 | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | $1542 | ▲ 0% dearer | 7.6 | $925k | $932k | ▼ 0.8% below | 103% | 4.3% | 3.9% | clear |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 21 Cockatiel Court | 8.0 | 6.7 | 4/2/2 | 670 m² | $1342 | ▼ 13% cheaper | 8.3 | $899k | $913k | ▼ 1.5% below | 100% | 4.0% | 4.0% | clear |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 73 Bayview Terrace | 7.9 | 6.7 | 4/2/5 | 600 m² | $1582 | ▲ 3% dearer | 7.3 | $949k | $941k | ▲ 0.9% above | 105% | 4.1% | 3.8% | clear |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 6 Nadine Place | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4/2/2 | 693 m² | $1341 | ▼ 13% cheaper | 8.1 | $929k | $902k | ▲ 3.0% above | 103% | 3.9% | 3.9% | ⚠ Flood |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 19 Breakwater Court | — | 6.7 | 5/2/4 | 764 m² | — | — | — | — | $1.03m | — | — | — | — | ⚠ Flood |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 26 Kevin Street | — | 6.7 | 4/2/2 | 752 m² | — | — | — | — | $999k | — | — | — | — | clear |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 42 Kooyalee Street | — | 6.7 | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | — | — | — | — | $940k | — | — | — | — | clear |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 5 Aberfoyle Drive | — | 6.7 | 4/2/4 | 606 m² | — | — | — | — | $925k | — | — | — | — | ⚠ Flood |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 5 Sarah Court | — | 6.7 | 3/2/2 | 838 m² | — | — | — | — | $933k | — | — | — | — | clear |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 5 Seagull Court | — | 6.7 | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | — | — | — | — | $956k | — | — | — | — | clear |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 59 Warroo Drive | — | 6.7 | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | — | — | — | — | $983k | — | — | — | — | ⚠ Flood |
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Deception Bay | 6 Lynette Court | — | 6.7 | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | — | — | — | — | $868k | — | — | — | — | clear |