Low crime across the board and predominantly 2005–2020 estate stock — low-maintenance, LRBA-friendly houses — with a healthy 30% rental base (2:1 room demand) and strong 5-yr CAGRs (price 13.9%, rent 9.4%).
Yield ~3.3% is the lowest in this group (top-up territory), there is no in-suburb rail (7–10 min to Strathpine/Bray Park), and a handful of estates are still releasing competing new stock.
South Pine River low-lying pockets flooded in Feb 2022; the Warner Lakes bulk sits clear, so this is a street-check risk rather than a suburb-wide one — but the wrong lot still carries flood premiums.
A quality family-estate hold: newer stock keeps repairs off the fund and the demographics are strong, but it's a growth-led, contribution-funded play, not a cash-flow one. Best on an elevated Warner Lakes lot with newer construction.
| Dimension | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Capital growth | ✓ Good | 13.9% compound over 5 yrs, 19.8% last 12m. Past growth is already in the price — sustaining it depends on the supply picture below. trend data (this DB) |
| Rental yield | ✗ Bad | 3.3% gross — heavy negative cash flow inside the fund — the growth has to justify it. PropTrack via suburb page |
| Flood risk | ◐ Mixed | South Pine River low-lying pockets were reported flooded in Feb 2022, but the elevated Warner Lakes estate — most of the suburb — sits clear; confirm the specific street on council Flood Check. MBRC flood mapping; Feb-2022 event (Moreton Daily; Grokipedia 'South Pine River') |
| Crime | ✓ Good | Break-ins 407/100k (−58%), MV theft 494 (−58%), violent 1,068 (−69%) — well below the QLD benchmarks across all categories. OpenStats 2022–24 (QPS/ABS) |
| Infrastructure | ◐ Mixed | Family estate with Warner Marketplace retail and schools; no in-suburb rail, relies on Strathpine/Bray Park (~7–10 min) for stations and major retail. editorial; Translink |
| Owner-occupier appeal | ✓ Good | 69% owned / 30% rented, 85% family households — owner-occupier depth supports prices and resale; verify tenant demand separately (listings volume, room demand). ABS via suburb page |
| New supply risk | ◐ Mixed | Warner Lakes (~1,100 lots from 2005) largely built out, but a handful of small-block estates are still releasing. openlot.com.au; Wikipedia 'Warner, Queensland' 2025 |
| Distance to rail | ◐ Mixed | No station; Strathpine/Bray Park ~7–10 min drive. Translink network |
| Housing stock & upkeep | ✓ Good | Predominantly 2005–2020 estate housing — low-maintenance newer stock that keeps repairs off fund cash flow. editorial — stock-age judgment |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $607,500 | 249 |
| 2021-08-31 | $630,000 | 242 |
| 2021-09-30 | $645,000 | 241 |
| 2021-10-31 | $660,000 | 250 |
| 2021-11-30 | $675,000 | 262 |
| 2021-12-31 | $685,000 | 274 |
| 2022-01-31 | $690,000 | 270 |
| 2022-02-28 | $706,000 | 265 |
| 2022-03-31 | $725,000 | 261 |
| 2022-04-30 | $742,000 | 263 |
| 2022-05-31 | $765,000 | 263 |
| 2022-06-30 | $782,000 | 252 |
| 2022-07-31 | $792,500 | 242 |
| 2022-08-31 | $800,000 | 232 |
| 2022-09-30 | $800,000 | 233 |
| 2022-10-31 | $803,000 | 220 |
| 2022-11-30 | $820,000 | 200 |
| 2022-12-31 | $823,750 | 184 |
| 2023-01-31 | $825,000 | 181 |
| 2023-02-28 | $800,000 | 176 |
| 2023-03-31 | $800,000 | 174 |
| 2023-04-30 | $800,000 | 173 |
| 2023-05-31 | $787,500 | 164 |
| 2023-06-30 | $785,000 | 164 |
| 2023-07-31 | $781,500 | 168 |
| 2023-08-31 | $785,000 | 168 |
| 2023-09-30 | $795,000 | 163 |
| 2023-10-31 | $810,000 | 173 |
| 2023-11-30 | $815,000 | 182 |
| 2023-12-31 | $821,250 | 182 |
| 2024-01-31 | $835,000 | 186 |
| 2024-02-29 | $845,000 | 196 |
| 2024-03-31 | $845,000 | 203 |
| 2024-04-30 | $850,000 | 202 |
| 2024-05-31 | $850,000 | 197 |
| 2024-06-30 | $855,000 | 202 |
| 2024-07-31 | $870,750 | 202 |
| 2024-08-31 | $875,000 | 202 |
| 2024-09-30 | $878,750 | 202 |
| 2024-10-31 | $885,000 | 194 |
| 2024-11-30 | $892,625 | 196 |
| 2024-12-31 | $899,000 | 198 |
| 2025-01-31 | $900,000 | 197 |
| 2025-02-28 | $905,000 | 187 |
| 2025-03-31 | $920,000 | 182 |
| 2025-04-30 | $949,000 | 179 |
| 2025-05-31 | $950,000 | 185 |
| 2025-06-30 | $960,000 | 189 |
| 2025-07-31 | $974,000 | 180 |
| 2025-08-31 | $987,100 | 179 |
| 2025-09-30 | $1,000,000 | 185 |
| 2025-10-31 | $1,025,000 | 187 |
| 2025-11-30 | $1,040,000 | 185 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1,050,000 | 185 |
| 2026-01-31 | $1,060,000 | 179 |
| 2026-02-28 | $1,080,000 | 181 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1,105,000 | 174 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1,122,500 | 182 |
| 2026-05-31 | $1,145,000 | 177 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1,150,000 | 161 |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $470/wk | 187 |
| 2021-08-31 | $470/wk | 181 |
| 2021-09-30 | $480/wk | 179 |
| 2021-10-31 | $480/wk | 180 |
| 2021-11-30 | $485/wk | 180 |
| 2021-12-31 | $490/wk | 182 |
| 2022-01-31 | $500/wk | 174 |
| 2022-02-28 | $500/wk | 163 |
| 2022-03-31 | $520/wk | 162 |
| 2022-04-30 | $520/wk | 158 |
| 2022-05-31 | $525/wk | 161 |
| 2022-06-30 | $543/wk | 168 |
| 2022-07-31 | $550/wk | 165 |
| 2022-08-31 | $550/wk | 164 |
| 2022-09-30 | $560/wk | 163 |
| 2022-10-31 | $565/wk | 159 |
| 2022-11-30 | $575/wk | 156 |
| 2022-12-31 | $580/wk | 155 |
| 2023-01-31 | $593/wk | 148 |
| 2023-02-28 | $595/wk | 147 |
| 2023-03-31 | $600/wk | 150 |
| 2023-04-30 | $600/wk | 152 |
| 2023-05-31 | $600/wk | 154 |
| 2023-06-30 | $600/wk | 164 |
| 2023-07-31 | $620/wk | 172 |
| 2023-08-31 | $625/wk | 183 |
| 2023-09-30 | $625/wk | 188 |
| 2023-10-31 | $625/wk | 192 |
| 2023-11-30 | $630/wk | 194 |
| 2023-12-31 | $630/wk | 186 |
| 2024-01-31 | $640/wk | 200 |
| 2024-02-29 | $650/wk | 209 |
| 2024-03-31 | $650/wk | 209 |
| 2024-04-30 | $650/wk | 213 |
| 2024-05-31 | $650/wk | 208 |
| 2024-06-30 | $650/wk | 203 |
| 2024-07-31 | $650/wk | 203 |
| 2024-08-31 | $670/wk | 193 |
| 2024-09-30 | $675/wk | 193 |
| 2024-10-31 | $675/wk | 188 |
| 2024-11-30 | $680/wk | 187 |
| 2024-12-31 | $680/wk | 185 |
| 2025-01-31 | $680/wk | 181 |
| 2025-02-28 | $680/wk | 174 |
| 2025-03-31 | $680/wk | 165 |
| 2025-04-30 | $690/wk | 169 |
| 2025-05-31 | $690/wk | 154 |
| 2025-06-30 | $700/wk | 153 |
| 2025-07-31 | $700/wk | 157 |
| 2025-08-31 | $700/wk | 157 |
| 2025-09-30 | $700/wk | 153 |
| 2025-10-31 | $700/wk | 156 |
| 2025-11-30 | $710/wk | 159 |
| 2025-12-31 | $720/wk | 167 |
| 2026-01-31 | $720/wk | 168 |
| 2026-02-28 | $720/wk | 165 |
| 2026-03-31 | $720/wk | 169 |
| 2026-04-30 | $720/wk | 167 |
| 2026-05-31 | $728/wk | 180 |
| 2026-06-30 | $730/wk | 179 |
| 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed | 5+ bed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price | $525 | $1.03m | $1.15m | $1.27m |
| Median rent | $525/wk | $650/wk | $735/wk | $1,000/wk |
| Implied yield | 5200.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% |
| Childcare centre | Rating | Reviews | Day rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Busy Bees at Warner | Meeting NQS | 4.5 ★ (30) | $156 |
| Busy Bees at Warner 2 | Meeting NQS | 4.5 ★ (30) | $154 |
| Happy Hearts Child Care Centre and Kindergarten Warner | Meeting NQS | 4.3 ★ (49) | POA |
| Rise & Shine Kindergarten Warner | Meeting NQS | 4.4 ★ (7) | POA |
| Address | Sold price |
|---|---|
| 140 Eatons Crossing Road, Warner | $2,310,000 |
| 11 Koel Court, Warner | $1,480,000 |
| 27 Barambah Circuit, Warner | $1,400,000 |
| 46 Kidston Cres, Warner | $1,390,200 |
| 10 Craigavon Street, Warner | $1,375,000 |
| 2 Edmund Court, Warner | $1,350,000 |
| 41 Castlewellan Circuit, Warner | $1,350,000 |
| 11 Patrone Court, Warner | $1,335,000 |
| 18 Oakwood Road, Warner | $1,325,000 |
| 22 Mondial Drive, Warner | $1,265,000 |
| 20 Boxwood Court, Warner | $1,150,000 |