The strongest price arc in the belt (13.5% five-year CAGR, 22.4% last year), the highest rents (~$1,175/wk) and near-total owner-occupancy — clear capital-growth pedigree in a supply-locked, D'Aguilar-fringe setting.
At ~2.9% yield on a $2.14M median with only 4% of homes rented, cash flow is deeply negative and the tenant pool is tiny — the losses stay trapped in the fund at 15%.
The structural risk you cannot insure or renovate away: South Pine flooding intensified through Highvale in Feb 2022 AND landslips recurred here in both 2011 and 2022. That combination loads insurance and threatens the asset itself on the wrong slope.
The best growth story in the subregion is also the most hazard-exposed. Only a well-capitalised fund buying a geotechnically clear, dry, newer-built lot should engage — the recurring flood/landslip pairing is a genuine gate, not a footnote.
| Dimension | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Capital growth | ✓ Good | 13.5% compound over 5 yrs, 22.4% last 12m. Past growth is already in the price — sustaining it depends on the supply picture below. trend data (this DB) |
| Rental yield | ✗ Bad | 2.9% gross — heavy negative cash flow inside the fund — the growth has to justify it. PropTrack via suburb page |
| Flood risk | ✗ Bad | South Pine River flooding intensified through Highvale in Feb 2022, and landslips were reported here in both 2011 and 2022 — a recurring hillside hazard that loads insurance and cannot be renovated away. Nikki Boyd Pine Rivers speech 2022; Moreton Bay Our Story 2011 |
| Crime | ✓ Good | No discrete rate data; rural-acreage locality in the low-crime Ferny Grove division adjoining Samford. Verify on the QPS crime map. RedSuburbs 2024 / QPS crime map (verify) |
| Infrastructure | ◐ Mixed | No local centre; leans on Samford Village retail/schools and Ferny Grove ~18–22 min; no rail, no in-district hospital. Transport factpack 2026 |
| Owner-occupier appeal | ✓ Good | 96% owned / 4% rented, 91% family households — owner-occupier depth supports prices and resale; verify tenant demand separately (listings volume, room demand). ABS via suburb page |
| New supply risk | ✓ Good | Rural / Rural Residential zoning with D'Aguilar range terrain and a Lot Size Overlay — effectively no new lots, a structural scarcity cap. MBRC Planning Scheme; supply factpack |
| Distance to rail | ✗ Bad | No station; nearest rail Ferny Grove ~18–22 min drive. Translink; transport factpack |
| Housing stock & upkeep | ◐ Mixed | Acreage stock of mixed eras on tank/septic; landslip-prone slopes add drainage/retaining costs on top of bushfire clearing — repairs the LRBA cannot fund. editorial — acreage-services judgment |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $1,150,000 | 35 |
| 2021-08-31 | $1,150,500 | 30 |
| 2021-09-30 | $1,280,000 | 29 |
| 2021-10-31 | $1,200,000 | 30 |
| 2021-11-30 | $1,200,000 | 26 |
| 2021-12-31 | $1,187,500 | 26 |
| 2022-01-31 | $1,200,000 | 23 |
| 2022-02-28 | $1,163,000 | 20 |
| 2022-03-31 | $1,200,000 | 17 |
| 2022-04-30 | $1,200,000 | 17 |
| 2022-05-31 | $1,280,000 | 19 |
| 2022-06-30 | $1,280,000 | 21 |
| 2022-07-31 | $1,285,000 | 20 |
| 2022-08-31 | $1,295,000 | 20 |
| 2022-09-30 | $1,270,000 | 18 |
| 2022-10-31 | $1,295,000 | 16 |
| 2022-11-30 | $1,300,000 | 19 |
| 2022-12-31 | $1,401,000 | 18 |
| 2023-01-31 | $1,401,000 | 18 |
| 2023-02-28 | $1,476,000 | 18 |
| 2023-03-31 | $1,500,000 | 19 |
| 2023-04-30 | $1,500,000 | 21 |
| 2023-05-31 | $1,600,000 | 19 |
| 2023-06-30 | $1,600,000 | 16 |
| 2023-07-31 | $1,600,000 | 18 |
| 2023-08-31 | $1,600,000 | 19 |
| 2023-09-30 | $1,600,000 | 21 |
| 2023-10-31 | $1,600,000 | 21 |
| 2023-11-30 | $1,665,000 | 19 |
| 2023-12-31 | $1,665,000 | 19 |
| 2024-01-31 | $1,670,000 | 22 |
| 2024-02-29 | $1,660,000 | 24 |
| 2024-03-31 | $1,652,500 | 24 |
| 2024-04-30 | $1,655,000 | 23 |
| 2024-05-31 | $1,652,500 | 24 |
| 2024-06-30 | $1,655,000 | 23 |
| 2024-07-31 | $1,652,500 | 22 |
| 2024-08-31 | $1,675,000 | 20 |
| 2024-09-30 | $1,650,000 | 19 |
| 2024-10-31 | $1,675,000 | 22 |
| 2024-11-30 | $1,700,000 | 23 |
| 2024-12-31 | $1,637,500 | 24 |
| 2025-01-31 | $1,625,000 | 21 |
| 2025-02-28 | $1,675,000 | 20 |
| 2025-03-31 | $1,662,500 | 18 |
| 2025-04-30 | $1,625,000 | 17 |
| 2025-05-31 | $1,700,000 | 17 |
| 2025-06-30 | $1,750,000 | 21 |
| 2025-07-31 | $1,770,000 | 22 |
| 2025-08-31 | $1,770,000 | 22 |
| 2025-09-30 | $1,780,000 | 23 |
| 2025-10-31 | $1,796,000 | 22 |
| 2025-11-30 | $1,820,000 | 23 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1,905,000 | 21 |
| 2026-01-31 | $1,862,500 | 22 |
| 2026-02-28 | $1,905,000 | 21 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1,905,000 | 21 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1,991,000 | 23 |
| 2026-05-31 | $1,991,000 | 21 |
| 2026-06-30 | $2,142,500 | 18 |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $900/wk | 7 |
| 2021-08-31 | $830/wk | 6 |
| 2021-09-30 | $830/wk | 6 |
| 2021-10-31 | $900/wk | 5 |
| 2021-11-30 | $850/wk | 7 |
| 2021-12-31 | $850/wk | 7 |
| 2022-01-31 | $850/wk | 7 |
| 2022-02-28 | $850/wk | 7 |
| 2022-03-31 | $850/wk | 7 |
| 2022-04-30 | $850/wk | 7 |
| 2022-05-31 | $850/wk | 7 |
| 2022-06-30 | $850/wk | 7 |
| 2022-07-31 | $850/wk | 6 |
| 2022-08-31 | $850/wk | 5 |
| 2022-09-30 | $850/wk | 5 |
| 2022-10-31 | $850/wk | 5 |
| 2022-11-30 | $850/wk | 5 |
| 2022-12-31 | $765/wk | 4 |
| 2023-01-31 | $900/wk | 5 |
| 2023-02-28 | $900/wk | 5 |
| 2023-03-31 | $915/wk | 6 |
| 2023-04-30 | $900/wk | 5 |
| 2023-05-31 | $900/wk | 6 |
| 2023-06-30 | $900/wk | 6 |
| 2023-07-31 | $1,000/wk | 6 |
| 2023-08-31 | $1,000/wk | 6 |
| 2023-09-30 | $900/wk | 7 |
| 2023-10-31 | $900/wk | 8 |
| 2023-11-30 | $900/wk | 8 |
| 2023-12-31 | $900/wk | 9 |
| 2024-01-31 | $1,000/wk | 8 |
| 2024-02-29 | $1,100/wk | 7 |
| 2024-03-31 | $1,100/wk | 7 |
| 2024-04-30 | $1,100/wk | 7 |
| 2024-05-31 | $1,000/wk | 4 |
| 2024-06-30 | $1,000/wk | 4 |
| 2024-07-31 | $1,100/wk | 5 |
| 2024-08-31 | $950/wk | 6 |
| 2024-09-30 | $1,125/wk | 6 |
| 2024-10-31 | $1,250/wk | 5 |
| 2024-11-30 | $1,325/wk | 6 |
| 2024-12-31 | $1,250/wk | 5 |
| 2025-01-31 | $1,250/wk | 5 |
| 2025-02-28 | $1,250/wk | 5 |
| 2025-03-31 | $1,200/wk | 7 |
| 2025-04-30 | $1,200/wk | 7 |
| 2025-05-31 | $1,200/wk | 7 |
| 2025-06-30 | $1,100/wk | 8 |
| 2025-07-31 | $1,100/wk | 8 |
| 2025-08-31 | $1,100/wk | 8 |
| 2025-09-30 | $950/wk | 5 |
| 2025-10-31 | $950/wk | 5 |
| 2025-11-30 | $1,075/wk | 6 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1,200/wk | 7 |
| 2026-01-31 | $1,075/wk | 8 |
| 2026-02-28 | $990/wk | 9 |
| 2026-03-31 | $990/wk | 7 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1,070/wk | 8 |
| 2026-05-31 | $1,070/wk | 8 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1,175/wk | 8 |
| 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed | 5+ bed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price | — | $1.60m | $1.85m | $2.31m |
| Median rent | — | — | $1,000/wk | $2,000/wk |
| Implied yield | — | — | 2.8% | 4.5% |
| Address | Sold price |
|---|---|
| 3 Thomas Graham Court, Highvale | $3,500,000 |
| 137 Moonlight Avenue, Highvale | $2,750,000 |
| 30 Springlands Place, Highvale | $2,630,000 |
| 51 Smalls Road, Highvale | $2,600,000 |
| 3 Woodbine Court, Highvale | $1,852,099 |
| 7 Hipwood Place, Highvale | $1,605,000 |