Murrumba Downs station in-suburb (Redcliffe Peninsula line), Redcliffe Hospital catchment, North Lakes retail next door, and the corridor's lowest crime tier (violent −63% vs benchmark). The best past-growth arithmetic in my pack (price 14.6%/yr, rent 10.4%/yr, clean consistent series), built out with scattered listings only — real scarcity.
A 3.4% yield (score 4.0) and a thin rental base — only 27% of homes are rentals — mean a shallower tenant pool and top-up territory at LRBA rates, though the 4:1 room-demand ratio shows the demand that exists is solid. Mixed-era 1990s-2010s stock carries house-by-house upkeep the fund pays for.
The North Pine River floodplain underlies parts of the suburb; river-adjacent streets carry riverine exposure, so flood status is street-dependent and needs an address-level Flood Check.
A solid, low-crime, transit-served long hold with excellent growth history and built-out scarcity — the cash-flow drag (thin rental base, sub-4% yield) is the price. Suits a growth-oriented SMSF with contribution headroom that buys newer stock on verified high ground away from the river.
| Dimension | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Capital growth | ◐ Mixed | 14.6% compound over 5 yrs, 14.3% last 12m. Past growth is already in the price — sustaining it depends on the supply picture below. trend data (this DB) |
| Rental yield | ✗ Bad | 3.4% gross — heavy negative cash flow inside the fund — the growth has to justify it. PropTrack via suburb page |
| Flood risk | ◐ Mixed | North Pine River floodplain underlies parts of the suburb; river-adjacent streets carry riverine exposure — street-level Flood Check needed. BOM North Pine River; MBRC flood mapping |
| Crime | ✓ Good | Break-ins 461/100k (−53%), vehicle theft 558 (−52%), violent 1,259 (−63%) — well below the QLD average. OpenStats 2022-24 (QPS/ABS) |
| Infrastructure | ✓ Good | Murrumba Downs station (Redcliffe Peninsula line) in-suburb, Redcliffe Hospital catchment, North Lakes retail adjacent. Translink; Metro North Health |
| Owner-occupier appeal | ✓ Good | 72% owned / 27% rented, 78% family households — owner-occupier depth supports prices and resale; verify tenant demand separately (listings volume, room demand). ABS via suburb page |
| New supply risk | ✓ Good | Built out; only scattered individual land listings remain — established-house scarcity. City of Moreton Bay; nestoria.com.au |
| Distance to rail | ✓ Good | Murrumba Downs station in the suburb (Redcliffe Peninsula line). Translink network |
| Housing stock & upkeep | ◐ Mixed | 1990s-2010s mix — upkeep varies house-by-house; confirm each dwelling's era. editorial — stock-age judgment |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $580,000 | 189 |
| 2021-08-31 | $612,000 | 193 |
| 2021-09-30 | $630,000 | 193 |
| 2021-10-31 | $657,000 | 193 |
| 2021-11-30 | $670,000 | 198 |
| 2021-12-31 | $675,000 | 191 |
| 2022-01-31 | $685,000 | 188 |
| 2022-02-28 | $695,000 | 182 |
| 2022-03-31 | $719,250 | 174 |
| 2022-04-30 | $730,000 | 180 |
| 2022-05-31 | $750,000 | 177 |
| 2022-06-30 | $756,000 | 174 |
| 2022-07-31 | $778,500 | 168 |
| 2022-08-31 | $756,000 | 150 |
| 2022-09-30 | $755,000 | 146 |
| 2022-10-31 | $752,000 | 145 |
| 2022-11-30 | $755,000 | 127 |
| 2022-12-31 | $751,000 | 128 |
| 2023-01-31 | $755,000 | 127 |
| 2023-02-28 | $759,125 | 120 |
| 2023-03-31 | $766,500 | 122 |
| 2023-04-30 | $766,500 | 116 |
| 2023-05-31 | $750,000 | 109 |
| 2023-06-30 | $760,000 | 111 |
| 2023-07-31 | $790,000 | 107 |
| 2023-08-31 | $802,500 | 126 |
| 2023-09-30 | $805,000 | 133 |
| 2023-10-31 | $820,000 | 133 |
| 2023-11-30 | $825,500 | 134 |
| 2023-12-31 | $859,500 | 138 |
| 2024-01-31 | $865,500 | 146 |
| 2024-02-29 | $860,000 | 153 |
| 2024-03-31 | $860,000 | 159 |
| 2024-04-30 | $866,000 | 169 |
| 2024-05-31 | $870,000 | 174 |
| 2024-06-30 | $875,000 | 176 |
| 2024-07-31 | $876,000 | 182 |
| 2024-08-31 | $907,500 | 174 |
| 2024-09-30 | $918,000 | 171 |
| 2024-10-31 | $910,000 | 169 |
| 2024-11-30 | $910,000 | 169 |
| 2024-12-31 | $919,000 | 164 |
| 2025-01-31 | $925,000 | 161 |
| 2025-02-28 | $930,000 | 152 |
| 2025-03-31 | $940,000 | 150 |
| 2025-04-30 | $960,000 | 147 |
| 2025-05-31 | $962,500 | 142 |
| 2025-06-30 | $990,750 | 142 |
| 2025-07-31 | $1,015,000 | 139 |
| 2025-08-31 | $1,005,000 | 137 |
| 2025-09-30 | $1,020,000 | 132 |
| 2025-10-31 | $1,035,000 | 143 |
| 2025-11-30 | $1,038,000 | 150 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1,050,000 | 156 |
| 2026-01-31 | $1,070,000 | 151 |
| 2026-02-28 | $1,100,000 | 154 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1,100,000 | 152 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1,100,000 | 147 |
| 2026-05-31 | $1,125,000 | 149 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1,132,000 | 138 |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $455/wk | 130 |
| 2021-08-31 | $470/wk | 137 |
| 2021-09-30 | $460/wk | 131 |
| 2021-10-31 | $473/wk | 130 |
| 2021-11-30 | $480/wk | 129 |
| 2021-12-31 | $480/wk | 126 |
| 2022-01-31 | $488/wk | 132 |
| 2022-02-28 | $485/wk | 128 |
| 2022-03-31 | $490/wk | 129 |
| 2022-04-30 | $490/wk | 121 |
| 2022-05-31 | $490/wk | 128 |
| 2022-06-30 | $503/wk | 124 |
| 2022-07-31 | $508/wk | 124 |
| 2022-08-31 | $510/wk | 124 |
| 2022-09-30 | $520/wk | 122 |
| 2022-10-31 | $520/wk | 125 |
| 2022-11-30 | $520/wk | 119 |
| 2022-12-31 | $530/wk | 123 |
| 2023-01-31 | $543/wk | 122 |
| 2023-02-28 | $550/wk | 126 |
| 2023-03-31 | $550/wk | 125 |
| 2023-04-30 | $560/wk | 120 |
| 2023-05-31 | $560/wk | 121 |
| 2023-06-30 | $578/wk | 118 |
| 2023-07-31 | $580/wk | 119 |
| 2023-08-31 | $580/wk | 112 |
| 2023-09-30 | $580/wk | 110 |
| 2023-10-31 | $600/wk | 119 |
| 2023-11-30 | $600/wk | 122 |
| 2023-12-31 | $595/wk | 124 |
| 2024-01-31 | $600/wk | 126 |
| 2024-02-29 | $600/wk | 125 |
| 2024-03-31 | $600/wk | 125 |
| 2024-04-30 | $600/wk | 124 |
| 2024-05-31 | $600/wk | 125 |
| 2024-06-30 | $610/wk | 125 |
| 2024-07-31 | $620/wk | 127 |
| 2024-08-31 | $620/wk | 126 |
| 2024-09-30 | $620/wk | 126 |
| 2024-10-31 | $620/wk | 124 |
| 2024-11-30 | $625/wk | 119 |
| 2024-12-31 | $635/wk | 115 |
| 2025-01-31 | $650/wk | 116 |
| 2025-02-28 | $650/wk | 116 |
| 2025-03-31 | $660/wk | 118 |
| 2025-04-30 | $665/wk | 122 |
| 2025-05-31 | $670/wk | 123 |
| 2025-06-30 | $670/wk | 126 |
| 2025-07-31 | $680/wk | 125 |
| 2025-08-31 | $700/wk | 125 |
| 2025-09-30 | $695/wk | 128 |
| 2025-10-31 | $695/wk | 140 |
| 2025-11-30 | $700/wk | 142 |
| 2025-12-31 | $713/wk | 146 |
| 2026-01-31 | $700/wk | 156 |
| 2026-02-28 | $715/wk | 154 |
| 2026-03-31 | $720/wk | 147 |
| 2026-04-30 | $723/wk | 146 |
| 2026-05-31 | $730/wk | 144 |
| 2026-06-30 | $740/wk | 143 |
| 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed | 5+ bed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price | $731k | $950k | $1.13m | $1.40m |
| Median rent | $640/wk | $650/wk | $790/wk | $920/wk |
| Implied yield | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| School | Level | Grades | Sector | Students |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Undurba State School | Primary | Prep-6 | Government | 908 |
| Living Faith Lutheran Primary School | Primary | Prep-6 | Independent | 574 |
| Murrumba State Secondary College | Secondary | 7-12 | Government | 1,715 |
| Childcare centre | Rating | Reviews | Day rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted Forest Early Learning - Murrumba Downs | Meeting NQS | 4.5 ★ (17) | $109 |
| Goodstart Early Learning Murrumba Downs | Meeting NQS | 5 ★ (37) | $145 |
| Lady Gowrie Murrumba Downs Community Kindergarten | Exceeding NQS | 4 ★ (4) | POA |
| Living Faith Lutheran Kindergarten | Exceeding NQS | — | $115 |
| Address | Sold price |
|---|---|
| 20 Tavistock Cres, Murrumba Downs | $1,860,000 |
| 7 Hawkhurst Court, Murrumba Downs | $1,850,222 |
| 11 Kate Court, Murrumba Downs | $1,675,000 |
| 7 Denis Street, Murrumba Downs | $1,570,000 |
| 4 Goodwood Road, Murrumba Downs | $1,464,000 |
| 11 Diamantina Court, Murrumba Downs | $1,411,000 |
| 29 Duyvestyn Terrace, Murrumba Downs | $1,300,000 |
| 6 Portland Street, Murrumba Downs | $1,300,000 |
| 41 Castle Hill Drive, Murrumba Downs | $1,295,000 |
| 9 Constance Court, Murrumba Downs | $1,250,000 |
| 3 Waranga Court, Murrumba Downs | $942,500 |
| 66/154 Goodfellows Road, Murrumba Downs | $770,000 |
| LGA | Subregion | Suburb | Address | Fit ▼ | Sub. Score | B/B/C | Land | Land $/m² | vs Sub. land | Land Idx | Price | Estimate | vs Est. | vs Bed Med. | Est. Yield | Suburb Yield | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Moreton Bay | North Lakes, Mango Hill and Deception Bay corridor | Murrumba Downs | 5 Waranga Court | — | 6.9 | 4/2/2 | 600 m² | — | — | — | — | $992k | — | — | — | — | clear |