Structural land scarcity is genuine — rural-zoned under the 75%-rural policy with no greenfield pipeline — and at a stated ~3.9% the yield is the least-thin of the hinterland group.
A 6%-rented locality of 328 people is effectively no tenant pool; the ~$990k median rests on two sales a year, so both entry pricing and exit are guesswork, and the headline -55.6% 12-month move is mix-noise, not a trend.
Remote acreage the LRBA cannot improve: septic/tank/bushfire-clearing upkeep drains fund cash, and ~25-35 min to the nearest rail and hospital caps the tenant catchment permanently.
Not an SMSF investment thesis — it is a lifestyle block that happens to appreciate. Pass unless the fund's strategy is explicitly long-hold rural land-banking on a dry, low-maintenance parcel.
| Dimension | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Capital growth | ✗ Bad | 0.3% compound over 4 yrs, -55.6% last 12m. Past growth is already in the price — sustaining it depends on the supply picture below. trend data (this DB) |
| Rental yield | ◐ Mixed | 3.9% gross — expect contribution top-ups at LRBA rates; losses stay trapped in the fund at 15%. PropTrack via suburb page |
| Flood risk | ◐ Mixed | No suburb-level event confirmed, but it sits in the same upper North Pine tributary flash-flood and road-isolation belt as neighbouring Laceys Creek (cut off for days, Feb 2022) — check council Flood Check at the address. BOM Pine/Caboolture brochure; MBRC Flood Check (address-level) |
| Crime | ◐ Mixed | No published suburb-level rate — a ~328-person rural locality under the Dayboro/Petrie police divisions, which read well below the QLD average; directionally low but unverified. OpenStats 2022-24 (division-level); no suburb data |
| Infrastructure | ✗ Bad | No township, rail or hospital; ~25-35 min to Petrie/Caboolture services — remote acreage with a thin tenant amenity base. Transport factpack (drive-time est.) |
| Owner-occupier appeal | ✓ Good | 94% owned / 6% rented, 81% family households — owner-occupier depth supports prices and resale; verify tenant demand separately (listings volume, room demand). ABS via suburb page |
| New supply risk | ✓ Good | Rural-zoned hinterland under Moreton Bay's 75%-rural-preservation policy with no greenfield or PDA pipeline — structural land scarcity, and Waraba's supply front does not reach here. Supply factpack; MBRC Planning Scheme; ShapingSEQ 2023 |
| Distance to rail | ✗ Bad | No station; nearest heavy rail is Petrie ~25-35 min by road — outside any commuter catchment. Translink network; transport factpack |
| Housing stock & upkeep | ✗ Bad | Acreage/lifestyle stock (septic, tank/bore water, sheds, long drives, bushfire clearing) — land-based upkeep the LRBA cannot fund and that drains fund cash. editorial — acreage stock judgment |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $980,000 | 9 |
| 2021-08-31 | $1,032,500 | 8 |
| 2021-09-30 | $1,032,500 | 8 |
| 2021-10-31 | $1,032,500 | 6 |
| 2021-11-30 | $1,032,500 | 6 |
| 2021-12-31 | $1,085,000 | 5 |
| 2022-01-31 | $1,085,000 | 5 |
| 2022-02-28 | $1,085,000 | 5 |
| 2022-03-31 | $1,085,000 | 5 |
| 2022-04-30 | $1,165,000 | 4 |
| 2022-05-31 | $1,350,000 | 1 |
| 2022-06-30 | $1,350,000 | 1 |
| 2022-08-31 | $875,000 | 2 |
| 2022-09-30 | $875,000 | 2 |
| 2022-10-31 | $830,000 | 3 |
| 2022-11-30 | $830,000 | 3 |
| 2022-12-31 | $821,250 | 4 |
| 2023-01-31 | $821,250 | 4 |
| 2023-02-28 | $821,250 | 4 |
| 2023-03-31 | $830,000 | 5 |
| 2023-04-30 | $830,000 | 5 |
| 2023-05-31 | $830,000 | 5 |
| 2023-06-30 | $830,000 | 5 |
| 2023-07-31 | $830,000 | 5 |
| 2023-08-31 | $830,000 | 3 |
| 2023-09-30 | $830,000 | 3 |
| 2023-10-31 | $876,250 | 2 |
| 2023-11-30 | $876,250 | 2 |
| 2023-12-31 | $940,000 | 1 |
| 2024-01-31 | $940,000 | 1 |
| 2024-02-29 | $940,000 | 1 |
| 2025-02-28 | $3,000,000 | 1 |
| 2025-03-31 | $3,000,000 | 1 |
| 2025-04-30 | $3,000,000 | 1 |
| 2025-05-31 | $3,000,000 | 1 |
| 2025-06-30 | $2,230,000 | 2 |
| 2025-07-31 | $1,460,000 | 3 |
| 2025-08-31 | $1,460,000 | 3 |
| 2025-09-30 | $1,460,000 | 3 |
| 2025-10-31 | $1,460,000 | 3 |
| 2025-11-30 | $1,460,000 | 3 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1,460,000 | 3 |
| 2026-01-31 | $1,460,000 | 3 |
| 2026-02-28 | $1,080,000 | 3 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1,080,000 | 3 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1,080,000 | 3 |
| 2026-05-31 | $1,080,000 | 3 |
| 2026-06-30 | $990,000 | 2 |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $700/wk | 2 |
| 2021-08-31 | $700/wk | 2 |
| 2021-09-30 | $718/wk | 2 |
| 2021-10-31 | $718/wk | 2 |
| 2021-11-30 | $485/wk | 3 |
| 2021-12-31 | $468/wk | 2 |
| 2022-01-31 | $485/wk | 3 |
| 2022-02-28 | $485/wk | 3 |
| 2022-03-31 | $535/wk | 4 |
| 2022-04-30 | $535/wk | 4 |
| 2022-05-31 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2022-06-30 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2022-07-31 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2022-08-31 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2022-09-30 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2022-10-31 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2022-11-30 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2022-12-31 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2023-01-31 | $585/wk | 3 |
| 2023-02-28 | $523/wk | 2 |
| 2023-03-31 | $595/wk | 1 |
| 2023-04-30 | $595/wk | 1 |
| 2023-05-31 | $595/wk | 1 |
| 2023-06-30 | $595/wk | 1 |
| 2023-07-31 | $595/wk | 1 |
| 2023-08-31 | $595/wk | 1 |
| 2025-07-31 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2025-08-31 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2025-09-30 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2025-10-31 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2025-11-30 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2025-12-31 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2026-01-31 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2026-02-28 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2026-03-31 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2026-04-30 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2026-05-31 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2026-06-30 | $750/wk | 1 |
| 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed | 5+ bed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price | — | $990k | — | — |
| Median rent | — | $750/wk | — | — |
| Implied yield | — | 3.9% | — | — |
| Address | Sold price |
|---|---|
| 165 Woodward Road, Armstrong Creek | $1,080,000 |