Rural-zoned scarcity and an ~13.7% five-year price CAGR show the tree-change bid is real.
Present is the group's weakest — ~2.1% yield, 9.5% rented, negative rent growth (-13.8%) and only three sales a year — so it costs the fund heavily to hold with almost no tenant demand.
Families were isolated for many days in Feb 2022 when creek flash-flooding cut the road; one-road-in isolation plus flood-repair exposure is exactly the structural risk an LRBA-funded hold cannot absorb.
The clearest pass of the group on the numbers: worst cash flow, confirmed isolation risk, no tenant pool. Rural land-banking only, and only well clear of the creek.
| Dimension | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Capital growth | ◐ Mixed | 13.7% compound over 5 yrs, -1.6% last 12m. Past growth is already in the price — sustaining it depends on the supply picture below. trend data (this DB) |
| Rental yield | ✗ Bad | 2.1% gross — heavy negative cash flow inside the fund — the growth has to justify it. PropTrack via suburb page |
| Flood risk | ◐ Mixed | Families were isolated for many days in Feb 2022 when creek flash-flooding cut road access; creek-flat exposure is confirmed and the isolation is the structural risk — an address-level Flood Check is essential. Independent Review — Stanley R & Neurum Ck (MBRC); Feb-2022 reports |
| Crime | ◐ Mixed | No published suburb-level rate — a ~280-person locality under the very-low Dayboro/Petrie divisions; directionally low but unverified. OpenStats 2022-24 (division-level) |
| Infrastructure | ✗ Bad | No township, rail or hospital; ~30 min to Petrie, and one-road-in access can be cut in flood — narrow, fragile amenity. Transport factpack; Feb-2022 isolation |
| Owner-occupier appeal | ✓ Good | 91% owned / 9% rented, 80% family households — owner-occupier depth supports prices and resale; verify tenant demand separately (listings volume, room demand). ABS via suburb page |
| New supply risk | ✓ Good | Rural-zoned scarcity with no pipeline under the 75%-rural policy. Supply factpack; MBRC Planning Scheme |
| Distance to rail | ✗ Bad | No station; ~30 min to Petrie rail — no commuter catchment. Translink network; transport factpack |
| Housing stock & upkeep | ✗ Bad | Acreage/creek-flat stock (septic, tanks, flood-repair exposure) — upkeep outside LRBA improvement funding. editorial — acreage judgment |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-31 | $837,500 | 2 |
| 2021-08-31 | $837,500 | 2 |
| 2021-09-30 | $837,500 | 2 |
| 2021-10-31 | $970,000 | 3 |
| 2021-11-30 | $982,500 | 4 |
| 2021-12-31 | $982,500 | 4 |
| 2022-01-31 | $982,500 | 4 |
| 2022-02-28 | $982,500 | 4 |
| 2022-03-31 | $995,000 | 5 |
| 2022-04-30 | $995,000 | 5 |
| 2022-05-31 | $1,047,500 | 4 |
| 2022-06-30 | $1,047,500 | 4 |
| 2022-07-31 | $1,250,000 | 4 |
| 2022-08-31 | $1,250,000 | 4 |
| 2022-09-30 | $1,250,000 | 4 |
| 2022-10-31 | $1,250,000 | 4 |
| 2022-11-30 | $1,100,000 | 3 |
| 2022-12-31 | $1,100,000 | 3 |
| 2023-01-31 | $1,100,000 | 3 |
| 2023-02-28 | $1,100,000 | 3 |
| 2023-03-31 | $1,787,500 | 2 |
| 2023-04-30 | $2,700,000 | 3 |
| 2023-05-31 | $2,700,000 | 3 |
| 2023-06-30 | $2,700,000 | 3 |
| 2023-07-31 | $1,937,500 | 2 |
| 2023-08-31 | $1,247,500 | 4 |
| 2023-09-30 | $1,247,500 | 4 |
| 2023-10-31 | $1,620,000 | 3 |
| 2023-11-30 | $1,620,000 | 3 |
| 2023-12-31 | $1,620,000 | 3 |
| 2024-01-31 | $1,620,000 | 3 |
| 2024-02-29 | $1,450,000 | 4 |
| 2024-03-31 | $1,450,000 | 4 |
| 2024-04-30 | $1,280,000 | 3 |
| 2024-05-31 | $1,280,000 | 3 |
| 2024-06-30 | $1,450,000 | 4 |
| 2024-07-31 | $1,450,000 | 4 |
| 2024-08-31 | $1,540,000 | 2 |
| 2024-09-30 | $1,700,000 | 3 |
| 2024-10-31 | $1,650,000 | 4 |
| 2024-11-30 | $1,600,000 | 5 |
| 2024-12-31 | $1,600,000 | 5 |
| 2025-01-31 | $1,600,000 | 5 |
| 2025-02-28 | $1,700,000 | 5 |
| 2025-03-31 | $1,700,000 | 5 |
| 2025-04-30 | $1,700,000 | 5 |
| 2025-05-31 | $1,700,000 | 5 |
| 2025-06-30 | $1,600,000 | 5 |
| 2025-07-31 | $1,587,500 | 6 |
| 2025-08-31 | $1,587,500 | 6 |
| 2025-09-30 | $1,575,000 | 5 |
| 2025-10-31 | $1,512,500 | 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | $1,575,000 | 3 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1,837,500 | 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | $1,837,500 | 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | $1,575,000 | 3 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1,575,000 | 3 |
| 2026-04-30 | $1,575,000 | 3 |
| 2026-05-31 | $1,282,950 | 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1,575,000 | 3 |
| Month | Value | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-30 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2022-10-31 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2022-11-30 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2022-12-31 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2023-01-31 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2023-02-28 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2023-03-31 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2023-04-30 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2023-05-31 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2023-06-30 | $690/wk | 1 |
| 2023-07-31 | $595/wk | 2 |
| 2023-08-31 | $595/wk | 2 |
| 2023-09-30 | $595/wk | 2 |
| 2023-10-31 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2023-11-30 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2023-12-31 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2024-01-31 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2024-02-29 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2024-03-31 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2024-04-30 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2024-05-31 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2024-06-30 | $500/wk | 1 |
| 2024-07-31 | $900/wk | 1 |
| 2024-08-31 | $900/wk | 1 |
| 2024-09-30 | $900/wk | 1 |
| 2024-10-31 | $900/wk | 1 |
| 2024-11-30 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2024-12-31 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2025-01-31 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2025-02-28 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2025-03-31 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2025-04-30 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2025-05-31 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2025-06-30 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2025-07-31 | $725/wk | 2 |
| 2025-08-31 | $700/wk | 2 |
| 2025-09-30 | $700/wk | 2 |
| 2025-10-31 | $700/wk | 2 |
| 2025-11-30 | $700/wk | 2 |
| 2025-12-31 | $850/wk | 1 |
| 2026-01-31 | $850/wk | 1 |
| 2026-02-28 | $650/wk | 3 |
| 2026-03-31 | $625/wk | 2 |
| 2026-04-30 | $625/wk | 2 |
| 2026-05-31 | $625/wk | 2 |
| 2026-06-30 | $625/wk | 2 |
| 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed | 5+ bed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price | $991k | $650 | $1.91m | — |
| Median rent | $600/wk | $650/wk | — | — |
| Implied yield | 3.1% | 5200.0% | — | — |